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If I need a place in San Jose for 6-8 months while I work on a project, should I buy a home or condo? Without any figures, common sense would say no. Just rent a suite or apartment, the payments are pretty much lost. There would be lots of headaches in trying to buy and sell a home that quickly, and risks involved.
With the car lease you're trying to rationalize that you are in the same boat. You are not. We all know that depreciation is heavy in years one and two, and also in three. By four and five they are more reasonable. Everyone has a cousin that knows someone who only buys used cars for that reason.
If I had a 1998 BMW (which I don't I have a 2000) which were paid for, what would compel me to replace it? I would say if it were having troubles, perhaps, but that's doubtful. The only factor is probably "image." That's what you satisfy with a lease, as well as a cash flow problem. But you pay a price. Funny how people hate banks' fees but don't even think twice when they lease.
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