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In Reply to: M3 Delay Manifesto posted by Paul on November 25, 2000 at 20:12:21:
My line of work is in manufacturing logistics consulting and seen a lot of reworks (better phrase compared to recalls) as a direct result of management pushing the leadtime too short in trying to launch a new product. In every case this always comes back to bite them.
The good news is that management within BMW is starting to realize this and although the damage is substantial by delaying the M3, its still better than pushing it out the door. The problem here is can they still re-engineer the M3 to an acceptable level of reliability. There's a big question mark here and I'm going to wait until the M3 is at least 2 years on the market before making a decision to buy one.
Hi Folks,
I'd like to take a moment to think a bit out loud about why we are seeing the M3 delayed. I base this on many years of engineering experience being on both the manufacturing side and as well as being privy to causes of product delays that I have waited on. The only catch, none of this is in the automotive industry but I still feel some of it may be similiar.
First, lets think about what would cause a company to continuously delay a product launch. I really think the engine component tolerance problem blamed on a supplier is nonsense. I can see this causing a small delay if true, but not three and six month delays. If there is a problem, it's caught, the software is reprogrammed and the mindless, nontiring machine goes about 24/7 making new parts. Even with bad manufacturing yields of two units per day, after three months you could have atleast 90 units and be well on your way building complete engines!
Let's think about the engine itself. Hmm, we are reving this engine at rates not seen in the past in a consumer grade automobile. Race engines have run at these RPM's for years but these engines and components are designed to be completely torn down after a single race and the teams have sponsors that provide them with deep pockets for continuously replacing worn/bad or broken parts.
So, I again ask, what would cause BMW to continously delay the M3. The only thing in my opinion that would cause the ongoing extended delays is the results of long term driving tests. Imagine, your running these long term tests on the M3 and results are now showing that after short term mileage (20-30k miles or maybe less!) the engine is tearing itself apart due to the high RPM's. This will be a major financial and marketing problem for BMW, known for their high quality. What do you do? Here you have a car with an extremely expensive engine that will need to be completely torn down every 20k miles or worse, replaced entirely. As a car company, you could not set a warranty of 3 years, 36000 miles because you would lose a fortune on the car replacing/rebuilding engines. But, you can't set the warranty miles lower because now the customer who has already spent $50,000USD on the car, is now facing a bill of $12,000USD for engine repairs! You'll lose the precious repeat buyers that make up a huge base of BMW sales.
So, you continuously delay the car while you try to find a solution to the engine wear problem and keep running these extended mileage tests. I'm deeply saddened by the realization that this is an engineering problem that may not be solved. BMW's solution then would be, one, cancel the car, two, downgrade the engine, or three, release it to the public as is and let the dedicated customer get screwed.
I post this here because I think there are some intelligent people out there that might read this, poke holes in my theory or worse, support it! I have a deposit down on the car and hope someday I'll own it, but I'm beginning to waver. Someone else mentioned BMW losing sales on the 330's while customers wait for the M3. I am one of those. I have the cash and was in the dealer last summer ready to order a 330, but I chose to wait on the M3 figuring it would be little more than a years wait. Now, with what looks like a March SOP, a much smaller number of cars being sent to the US, and my realization that my #14 spot is at a dealer that will probably only get 1 car every other month. I'll be lucky if I see a car in 2002!
This is very sad, what was once one of BMW's most successful car models, selling a ton of cars over it's many year run, is now vaporware! Sorry for the extended length, just needed to vent a little. Now I will go back to quietly, optimistically and patiently waiting for my 2003 Phoenix Yellow M3 Coupe.
Later,
Paul
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